Vietnam’s $454 Billion Export Ambition in 2025

By Peter Nguyen, Chief Executive Officer of Super Cargo Service in Vietnam

Vietnam has set an ambitious target to achieve $454 billion in annual export revenue by 2025, a 12% year-on-year increase.
As global trade patterns shift and supply chains undergo realignments within the context of heightened competition, this goal reflects both opportunity and urgency. The success in reaching these objectives depends on modernizing logistics, fixing inefficiencies, and using technology to meet growing global demand.

Current Realities and Future Demands

Vietnam’s export sector has been a cornerstone of its economic resilience. In 2024, exports surged by 14.3% year-on-year, driven by electronics, textiles, and agricultural products. This growth contributed to a 7.09% GDP expansion, the highest in Southeast Asia. The International Monetary Fund projects a 6.1% GDP growth for Vietnam in 2025, driven by strong exports and rising FDI, up 14% in 2024.

The manufacturing sector, particularly electronics, remains the backbone of Vietnam’s export engine. Electronics drive a large share of Vietnam’s exports, with major factories supplying globally and linking to high-tech supply chains. Meanwhile, textile exports rebound as firms shift to premium lines like recycled fabrics and tech apparel to offset rising costs and competition.

However, structural vulnerabilities persist. Over 60% of exports flow to the U.S., EU, and China, exposing the economy to geopolitical and demand fluctuations. The 2023 slowdown, when export growth stalled at 5% amid global demand contraction, underscores the need for diversification. Expanding into emerging markets such as the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia will mitigate reliance on traditional partners while unlocking new revenue streams. For instance, Vietnam’s agricultural exports to the Middle East grew by 22% in 2024, driven by rising demand for rice, coffee, and seafood in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.

Infrastructure and Efficiency

A modernized logistics framework is essential to scaling Vietnam’s export capacity and reducing operational inefficiencies across key sectors. Logistics costs in Vietnam are 15–16% of GDP, higher than the global average, affecting its competitiveness. Congested ports and fragmented transport networks cause delays; container dwell time at Cat Lai Port is double that of regional peers.

The government’s $15 billion infrastructure plan targets upgrades to reduce bottlenecks and support Vietnam’s export growth through improved connectivity. Key projects include:

• Deep-Water Ports: Expanding Cai Mep-Thi Vai and Lach Huyen ports to handle 15 million TEUs annually, reducing reliance on transshipment through Singapore.

• North-South Expressway: Completing the 2,109-kilometer highway to cut travel time between Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City from 30 hours to 18 hours.

• Railway Modernization: Upgrading the 1,726-kilometer North-South railway to increase cargo capacity by 40% and connect industrial zones to ports.

Multimodal corridors linking seaports, airports, and inland logistics hubs could reduce road freight dependency, which currently handles 77% of domestic cargo. The development of inland container depots (ICDs) in Bac Ninh and Dong Nai provinces has already reduced trucking distances for electronics manufacturers by 30%, according to the Vietnam Logistics Business Association.

Air cargo capacity remains a critical gap. Vietnam’s annual air freight volume reached 1.8 million tons in 2024, but this lags 40% behind Thailand’s capacity. The upcoming Long Thanh International Airport, slated to open in 2026, will triple cargo handling capacity to 5 million tons annually, positioning Vietnam as a regional air logistics hub.

Harnessing Trade Shifts and Technological Advancements

Vietnam’s strategic positioning amid U.S.-China trade tensions has already attracted manufacturing shifts. Electronics, which constitute 35% of exports, benefit from FDI inflows as firms expand operations. The U.S. remains Vietnam’s largest export market, with bilateral trade hitting $124 billion in 2024, up 18% year-on-year. Free trade agreements (FTAs) further amplify opportunities: the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and EU-Vietnam FTA are projected to boost annual exports by $14 billion through tariff reductions and market access.

Digital transformation is reshaping supply chain efficiency. Next-generation customs platforms, such as Vietnam’s National Single Window system, have reduced clearance times by 30% for firms adopting these tools. IoT-driven tracking systems are being piloted by logistics providers to monitor perishable goods in real time, addressing a critical need for agricultural exporters. For example, a pilot program for dragon fruit shipments to China reduced spoilage rates from 15% to 5% through temperature-controlled containers equipped with IoT sensors.

Sustainability initiatives are gaining traction. With 28% of global shippers prioritizing carbon-neutral supply chains by 2025, Vietnamese exporters are piloting electric delivery vehicles and optimizing routes to cut urban emissions by 18%. The government’s Green Growth Strategy 2025 mandates that 10% of logistics fleets transition to electric or hybrid vehicles by 2030. Additionally, renewable energy projects, such as the $13.5 billion LNG-to-power complex in Bac Lieu Province, aim to decarbonize industrial zones and attract environmentally conscious investors.

Sectoral Priorities and Value Chain Integration

Breaking down the $454 billion target reveals sector-specific strategies:

Electronics: Scaling High-Value Manufacturing

Vietnam's export in electronics are forecast to reach $160 billion in 2025, up from $142 billion in 2024. To achieve this, Vietnam must move beyond assembly to higher-value activities like semiconductor production and R&D. The U.S.-Vietnam Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, announced in 2023, includes commitments to develop Vietnam’s semiconductor workforce and supply chain. Major firms have already announced significant investments in semiconductor packaging and design.

Challenges remain, including limited domestic semiconductor expertise and reliance on imported materials. Only 15% of electronics inputs are sourced locally, compared to 40% in Malaysia. The establishment of the National Innovation Center (NIC) in Hanoi aims to address this by fostering partnerships between universities and multinationals to train engineers and develop homegrown tech startups.

Textiles: Premium Products and Circular Practices

The textile industry targets $48–49 billion in exports by 2025, a $4 billion increase from 2024. Rising labor costs—Vietnam’s minimum wage grew 6% annually from 2020–2024—have pushed firms to adopt automation and sustainable practices. Major conglomerates have invested in dyeing robots and water recycling systems to meet EU eco-label standards.

Circular economy models are gaining momentum. A pilot project by major clothing brands and local suppliers recycled 1,000 tons of post-industrial fabric waste into new garments in 2024, reducing raw material costs by 20%. Such initiatives align with the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which will impose tariffs on carbon-intensive imports starting in 2026.

Agriculture: Cold Chain Investments and Market Diversification

Agricultural exports aim for $28 billion in 2025, driven by processed foods and seafood. Vietnam is the world’s third-largest rice exporter, with shipments reaching 8 million tons in 2024. However, post-harvest losses exceed 25% due to inadequate cold storage and processing facilities. The Ministry of Agriculture’s $500 million cold chain development program, launched in 2023, targets a 50% reduction in losses by 2025.

Diversification into Halal markets presents significant potential. Vietnam’s Halal certification agency, established in 2024, aims to capture a share of the $2.3 trillion global Islamic economy. In 2024, seafood exports to Saudi Arabia and the UAE grew by 35%, driven by certified shrimp and pangasius products.

Strategic Imperatives for Sustainable Growth

1. Accelerate Infrastructure Modernization: Prioritize rail and port upgrades to lower costs and improve connectivity. Public-private partnerships can expedite project timelines, as seen in the $2.3 billion Cai Mep Ha Terminal expansion, funded by major global partners.

2. Leverage Digital Tools: Integrate AI and real-time data analytics into supply chains. The Vietnam National University’s AI Research Lab is collaborating with logistics firms to develop predictive maintenance systems for cargo fleets, reducing downtime by 25%.

3. Upskill Workforce: Address the shortage of 200,000 logistics professionals by aligning vocational training with Industry 4.0 demands. The German-funded “Logistics 4.0” program has trained 10,000 workers in automation and robotics since 2022.

4. Expand Market Access: Utilize FTAs to penetrate under-tapped regions. The ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand FTA (AANZFTA) could boost agro-exports to Oceania by $1.2 billion annually, according to the Asian Trade Centre.

Vietnam’s export ambition is not merely a numerical target but a reflection of its growing economic maturity. The convergence of infrastructure investments, technological adoption, and strategic trade partnerships positions the country to transcend traditional growth constraints. While challenges like infrastructure gaps and labor shortages persist, joint efforts can turn these obstacles into drivers of logistics innovation.

The electronics sector’s shift toward semiconductors, textiles’ embrace of circularity, and agriculture’s cold chain advancements illustrate Vietnam’s capacity to adapt to global trends. By prioritizing efficiency, sustainability, and diversification, Vietnam can turn its $454B export goal into a global trade benchmark. Success will depend on maintaining policy agility and embedding resilience into every layer of the supply chain. As global trade continues to evolve, Vietnam’s adaptability and growth strategy will shape its role in future international commerce.

Freyt World Blog Contributor

Peter Nguyen

Chief Executive Officer, Super Cargo Service, a member of the Freyt World Network

Freyt World is a global logistics network uniting members from around the world. Our mission is to revolutionize global logistics through collaboration and innovation. Our platform goes beyond networking, enabling members to excel and grow together, featuring articles by logistics professionals for their peers. This series will cover industry-relevant issues and news, providing valuable insights for professionals in the field.